President Zardari is losing his grip on the country

By NAJAM SETHI

President Asif Ali Zardari took office last September promising to consolidate Pakistan's democracy. Instead, as Tuesday's terrorist attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore showed, his poor political decisions are allowing the militants to gain the upper hand -- and ripping Pakistan apart in the process.

Mr. Zardari's biggest problem is one of ego; he fancies himself a great politician who can subdue terrorists with his diplomatic skill. Last month, he struck a "peace deal" with Sufi Mohammed, a radical cleric whose son-in-law, Maulana Fazlullah, is the Taliban's commander in the region and is closely allied to al Qaeda. Mr. Mohammed has pledged to usher in Islamic Shariah law to Swat.

The President ignored this reality and the failure of past deals with Taliban sympathizers and struck a deal with Mr. Mohammed, claiming it would "help restore peace to the area." As if on cue, Mullah Muhammad Omar, the Taliban leader who is likely hiding somewhere in no-man's land between Pakistan and Afghanistan, issued a decree exhorting unity between all Taliban groups and focus on combating the U.S. "surge" in Afghanistan. Freed from having to contend with the Pakistani military in Swat, the Taliban is now gearing up for a spring offensive in Afghanistan as Kabul readies for a presidential election later in the year.

Mr. Zardari's naivete will have ripple effects throughout Pakistan. The Taliban's control over Swat will enable the group to spread its tentacles to the province's other settled areas, many of which are already quaking at the prospect of creeping Talibanization. The Swat "peace deal" bans music and films and other forms of "vulgarity" -- unsurprising, given the Taliban doesn't want women educated and has bombed 200 girls' schools so far. It lays down a 17-point agenda for Islamic justice but says nothing about halting Taliban attacks on government installations and kidnappings of security personnel, which continue apace.

Further south, Mr. Zardari has precipitated a political crisis in Punjab province by leaning on the Supreme Court to disqualify Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif from holding office. The brothers are leaders of one of the country's biggest political parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, which governed the province. The party has enjoyed a surge in popularity on the back of Mr. Zardari's political bungles, and is whipping up a storm on the streets. Later this month, Mr. Sharif intends to join hands with the lawyers' movement for restoration of deposed chief justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry and to march on Islamabad. Mr. Sharif is rousing crowds by demanding a "democratic revolution."

Here, Mr. Zardari is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Justice Chaudhry has publicly stated that he wants to re-examine Mr. Zardari's reprieve from corruption charges, which was granted by the previous government. Yet he has to head off street protests that will likely turn violent. So the government is gearing up for street clashes, despite the fact that most citizens simply want political reconciliation.

Given all this, Tuesday's terrorist attack on the visiting Sri Lankan cricket team's motorcade was only a matter of time. It was a serious incident -- six policemen were killed and several more people injured, including two Sri Lankan cricketers. Not one terrorist was caught or injured, casting a big question mark on the government's provision of security to VIPs and the poor intelligence, which failed to prevent the attack.

The government is failing to convince the public of the dangers of domestic terrorism. After Tuesday's attack, Pakistani television was filled with commentators -- including retired military types -- who pointed the finger at India's intelligence agencies. Many argued that Pakistani terror groups would have committed suicide. They said al Qaeda doesn't exist and if it does, it is anti-American and not anti-Pakistan. Some even suggested that the government could have done it to divert attention from the brewing political crisis in Punjab.

The truth is that Pakistan is threatened more than ever by terrorism. The initial government investigation points to Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a sectarian jihadi group allied to the Taliban and al Qaeda that is also suspected of involvement in the last year's murder of politician Benazir Bhutto and the attack on the Marriot hotel in Islamabad. But Pakistanis are in a state of denial, and the government's lack of credibility isn't helping to change their minds.

Next month, the Obama administration will conduct a review of its Afghan and Pakistan policies. Washington wants to prop up Pakistan and steel its will in the war against terror that is threatening to spill over into India and Afghanistan. But that noble objective cannot be achieved without a functional political order in Pakistan, in which the government, army, opposition and people are on the same page as regards al Qaeda and the Taliban.

President Zardari's political bungles, from opportunist peace deals surrendering the state's sovereignty to non-state actors in sensitive areas, to political confrontation in the streets of Punjab and Islamabad, to a state of mass denial about the dangers from locally nurtured jihadi groups and the Taliban, are serious, to say the least. Pakistan's army is also reluctant to fight an insurgency against "fellow Muslims" in tribal areas. Mr. Zardari needs public support to turn things around.

In the past, when a Pakistan leader's political credibility has declined, the army has intervened and seized power. The current army hasn't shown signs that it wants to do that. Mr. Zardari thus still has time to correct his course. Pakistan's future depends on it